基于中心差异度迭代调整机制的 网络社区搜寻算法研究

为解决当前网络社区搜寻算法存在的节点聚类形成困难,搜寻迭代过于复杂,难以实现社区归属的二次更新等不足,提出了一种基于中心差异度迭代调整机制的网络社区搜寻算法。首先,通过领袖节点重叠度来实现初次社区搜寻裁决,有效降低了重复搜寻的概率,且根据加入节点与领袖节点差异度进行聚类匹配;随后,通过待加入节点与领袖节点之间的交互热度方式进行基于热度机制的聚类递归,实现对搜寻误差的二次校正。仿真实验表明,与当前网络社区搜寻算法中常用的差分迭代阈值裁决机制,混沌度一体化成型迭代机制相比,本文算法具有更高的首次成功率,以及更小的搜寻次数与迭代周期,具有很强的实际部署价值。     

Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error‐based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state‐of‐the‐art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies.     

注水井螯合酸复合解堵体系研究与应用

针对海上疏松砂岩油藏使用常规含氟酸液体系酸化易造成岩石骨架疏松和二次伤害的问题，结合海上油田注水井不动管柱酸化和酸化后残酸不返排便直接转正常注水的特点，研制出一套低腐蚀、低沉淀的螯合酸复合解堵体系，并以渤海油田X区块注水井为例，对注水井欠注原因及解堵效果进行分析。结果表明，螯合酸复合解堵体系具有较好的缓速性、缓蚀性和抑垢性，可有效增加酸液作用距离、保障注水管柱安全、避免造成岩石骨架疏松和抑制二次和三次沉淀产生，能高效解除无机物和聚合物伤害；X区块注水井欠注原因主要是水敏、微粒运移、悬浮颗粒、结垢和聚合物等形成的多元复合物堵塞地层；现场应用单井视吸水指数增加幅度大于65.4%，解堵效果显著，可在类似油田推广应用。     

Activity and reproduction in Megalobulimus paranaguensis (Gastropoda,Eupulmonata): implications for conservation in captivity for a South American land snail

ABSTRACT

In South America, Megalobulimus includes a number of threatened species, as well the largest land snails on the continent. The activity patterns and reproductive aspects of this group have not been documented. This work describes the daily and seasonal activity patterns and reproduction of M. paranaguensis. We maintained specimens in the laboratory for one year, and we quantified their behaviour for one hour at four different times of the day (0 h, 6 h, 12 h and 18 h) during three days in four months (August, September, April and May). The number of postures, hatching rate, time of hatching since oviposition and mortality rate among juveniles for each month were also quantified. Megalobulimus paranaguensis was more active in August, and had a egg laying peak one month after. Fifty-one eggs were laid by 12 captive individuals throughout the year, with a mean value of 4.25 eggs per individual. The hatching rate was 80.39%, and the time of hatching since oviposition was 56.7 ± 4.3 days. In two eggs, we observed the presence of twins. The mortality rate among juveniles was low (9.30%) indicating that rearing land snails in captivity has the potential to be an important and viable tool for the management and conservation of these organisms.     

峨嵋双蝴蝶植物提取物的抗五步蛇毒作用

研究峨嵋双蝴蝶植物水提物的抗五步蛇毒作用.建立小鼠五步蛇毒中毒模型,观察小鼠的中毒表现,并统计小鼠的死亡率,比较小鼠组织出血、组织坏死及组织溃疡状况.结果发现,峨嵋双蝴蝶植物水提物给药组动物的死亡率较模型组的明显下降,局部和全身症状较轻,而且随着剂量的增加症状显著减轻,尤其是对于组织的保护作用比较明显.峨嵋双蝴蝶植物水提物具有抗五步蛇毒作用,能降低蛇毒毒性.     

增氮析氮法生成气泡去除钢液中显微非金属夹杂物

为了进一步完善增氮析氮法生成气泡去除钢液中显微非金属夹杂物技术，研究了真空处理时间、充氮压力、气体类型等因素对钢中全氧和显微非金属夹杂物的影响.结果表明：减压处理过程中，钢液中非金属夹杂物可为过饱和气体氮气形成气泡提供非均相形核核心；增氮析氮法可有效地降低钢中全氧，去除钢中显微非金属夹杂物；真空处理时间越长，钢中全氧和显微非金属夹杂物数量越低，当真空处理时间为30 min时钢中全氧去除率达到了81.6%，而且全氧质量分数最低达到7×10-6.     

户用光伏交流冰箱系统的性能研究

针对昆明地区户用光伏交流冰箱系统的工作特性进行了实验研究,在不同天气条件下对所构建的系统性能进行了测试,测试结果表明,该系统冰箱的冷冻室最低温度可达-22℃,冷藏室温度为0~7℃,在晴天和多云天气情况下,系统带3kg水时制冷系数COP分别为0.08、0.05,系统带8kg负载时制冷系数COP分别为0.28、0.23;在阴雨天气情况下,蓄电池单独向系统供电可保证系统连续工作3d.该光伏冰箱系统在昆明地区运行稳定,并为户用光伏交流冰箱系统性能的进一步优化提供了依据.     

佛山市基本农田保护区养殖鱼塘水质抽样调查与评价

对佛山市5区的基本农田保护区养殖鱼塘水质抽样调查,并采用环境污染指数对水质状况进行评价。结果表明,养殖鱼塘水温和p H值均能达到鱼类正常生长要求,溶解氧较丰富,但水质普遍过肥。在5区20个调查点中,CODCr、NH4+-N和TP超标率分别为90%、30%、85%。5区养殖鱼塘水质的污染程度由高到低依次为禅城区、南海区、三水区、顺德区、高明区。全市养殖鱼塘的综合质量指数为1.44,水质整体上受到重度污染。TP的污染负荷分担率最高,其次是CODCr和NH4+-N。总体来说,佛山市基本农田保护区养殖鱼塘水体有机物污染十分突出,已出现富营养化。     

跳扩散下汇率变动的外商直接投资问题研究

本文在跳扩散环境下研究了汇率变动对外商直接投资的影响.首先,通过Ito公式,推导得出跳扩散环境下以本币表示的风险资产价格动力学方程.然后在终端财富预期效用最大化标准下,利用HJB方程推导最优投资策略,得出最优动态资产配置策略的近似解.最后对结果进行数值分析,定量分析了跳和汇率变化对投资商最优资产配置策略的影响.